What happened to Hurricane Vance?

At 6:35 A.M. local time we had a mild Southeast breeze off the land with smooth ocean waters...a sure sign Vance was still inbound and pulling air off the land. By 6:40 the wind had switched to the North and rapidly increased to create some white caps between the shore and the islands. That was a sure sign Vance had made landfall and we were getting a classic backside of the storm wind reversal. 

As predicted the wind is well below Tropical Storm level, and no stronger than many afternoons. The waves aren't anywhere near big enough to do any more damage as we hoped, although a very high tide isn't helpful. Tongue in cheek I will tell you the above information is based on direct observation from myself and others...without the benefit of a magic linked website with all the answers (based in Miami Beach, Florida about 1,800 miles / 2,900 kilometers away).

You see the folks in Florida didn't update Vance from 1:00 A.M until 7:30 A.M, at which time the storm had already gone to ground near Teacapan about halfway between Maz and San Blas. That would be over 200 miles south of the position they predicted last evening. Thank God this wasn't a damaging storm, and our original prediction Vance would be much ado about nothing was correct.

To be fair I likewise predicted landfall well north of Maz. However I thought they missed badly on the claimed 45 MPH / 72 KPH wind, and wrote the velocity would be low enough to be insignificant, regardless of the storm track.  Which brings me to the real reason I've brought this up, which is not to cast aspersions or brag.

Rather to remind people there is NO weather person for Maz and all reports are computer models based on readings. Furthermore almost every popular weather reporting bureau, like The Weather Channel in the US and Accuweather in Canada, takes their readings from the airport. That's a classic case of garbage in / garbage out, since we all know weather at the airport is quite dissimilar to what you experience upon reaching your home or resort.

Plus you don't have anyone on the ground to correct obvious mistakes, a la the bizarre Weather Underground prediction of "freezing rain" for last night. Now there was a spooky and unusual small cloud that literally created a shroud over the top half of Bird Island around midnight. Maybe while the rest of us were "suffering" with rain and 70 F. / 21 C. degree temperatures, inside the mysterious shroud rain magically fell at 32 F. / 0 C.....Haha!

This looks to be the tropic's last chance since the wind from this event made water temperatures even less attractive for a storm to traverse. Moreover the unusual aspect of Vance pulling air way inland off the mountains will likely result in a fast transition to the kind of dry and mild winter weather Maz is used to from November through March. Enjoy !

Rain, Rain Come Another (And Another - And Another) Day? - Mazatlan weather report

In the Northern US and Canada folks are hoping for a possible Indian Summer…those glorious days of Fall when dry warm air provides a last taste of summer.  In a weird way Maz is already experiencing a last fling with summer, as Hurricane Vance first made it feel like August again.    

I say weird because after Vance pushed up a very humid wave of warm air, the next step was a rainy chill almost like a those experienced in Vancouver or Portland.  More importantly for our NOB visitors, Vance latched onto a cousin and is carrying a big long tail we’ll be dealing with. 

The key question for this week and beyond is lluvia (rain) once….or twice?  Not large amounts in waves, as you usually expect from a Tropical Storm.  Rather a steady mild rain, combined with occasional periods of cool wind being drawn in off the mountains toward the storm center.  Let me explain. 

Shortly after Vance moved West out to sea, another area of disturbance developed off the coast near Acapulco.  This was reminiscent of the “Hurricane Bus Route” days of September.  However rather than two distinct storms, in this case Vance lingered in the area while the next weaker storm drew closer.

Given a different birth time our small cousin could have traveled a different route.  However the natural pull of outward air toward a storm center allowed Vance to latch onto the new area of disturbed air.  Now instead of the prototypical round storm, we’ve got a very long tail.  The result is we’ll have our current rain continuing through at least tomorrow, and possibly Thursday.  Then watch to see if the lagging tail brings more of the wet stuff early next week. 

In the interim expect some clear gorgeous weather for a three day weekend starting Friday.  If you were thinking about that trip to El Quelite or the zip line fun, this is a great time to do it.  Highs should be in the low 80’s to maybe 85 (29 – 30 C.) with mild winds just right for keeping it pleasant.  Low’s will be in the high 60’s (20 – 21 C.), with moderate humidity.  Just right for sleeping under the sheets with the A/C off. 

In a day or two the tail will be more discernable as to direction (it may miss us to the South) and how much moisture it carries.   Stay tuned for an update.  In the meantime after it moves through we look to move into our typical November weather pattern.  Warm days and pleasant nights, with noticeably dryer air. 

Have a great time if you’re in Maz, and if not see you soon!

Hurricane Vance weather update

Hurricane Vance is now expected to turn toward the mainland, but the Hurricane Center has not forecast it to back on it's original hook path right at Mazatlan. Instead the direction looks to be due North at Baja for today, then start to swing Northeast back toward the mainland.

That longer traveling time North and the sharply decreased Easterly angle would have Vance making landfull somewhere near the charming little town of Eldorado. Over a hundred miles and 170 kilometers north of Maz, which makes a world of difference in terms of wind speed for a moderate sized storm like this one.

Another important update is the Northeast rather than West track keeps Vance in warmer waters so the time he would be at hurricane strength has been increased by probably a day. The good news is the new forecast direction is so northerly the storm will almost certainly fade along the extra distance over water from a hurricane down to sub-tropical level.

That is a huge, huge difference as hurricanes start at 74 MPH / 119 KPH winds. Whereas the threshold for a Tropical Storm is only 38 MPH / 62 KPH. Vance is currently a Category II hurricane with sustained winds of 105 MPH / 169 KPH. A drop to sub Tropical level before landfall would decrease the wind velocity by a whopping 65%. Then moving landfall a hundred miles away from Maz decreases it even more.

This new direction certainly puts Maz into the path for more rain, but is very unlikely to be a wind event. The jury is still out on the path making more or less of the size and intensity of waves that could do further damage. Stay tuned.

Mayor Wants Uniformity in Palapas

by Murry Page

Oct 14 

mazmessenger.com

 

To project a look of uniformity the Municipal Planning Institute has gotten involved the reconstruction of palapas located from Avenida del Mar up to Cerritos.

At a meeting with owners of the city’s palapas on Saturday the mayor said he would like to see a model of a standard palapa proposed by the Mazatlán Union of Palapa Owners within the next 15 days. Until that time the city will not approve construction plans.

Enriqueta Manjarrez Salazar, president of the union, said “We told the mayor that we will support the plan and see if is feasible, we want to work and we are not going to disappear.”

The union president said six palapas were totally destroyed and most of the others sustained varying degrees of damage. The average cost to make the needed repairs is 100,000 pesos ($7,700). Money the owners do not have.

(from Noroeste)