What happened to Hurricane Vance?

At 6:35 A.M. local time we had a mild Southeast breeze off the land with smooth ocean waters...a sure sign Vance was still inbound and pulling air off the land. By 6:40 the wind had switched to the North and rapidly increased to create some white caps between the shore and the islands. That was a sure sign Vance had made landfall and we were getting a classic backside of the storm wind reversal. 

As predicted the wind is well below Tropical Storm level, and no stronger than many afternoons. The waves aren't anywhere near big enough to do any more damage as we hoped, although a very high tide isn't helpful. Tongue in cheek I will tell you the above information is based on direct observation from myself and others...without the benefit of a magic linked website with all the answers (based in Miami Beach, Florida about 1,800 miles / 2,900 kilometers away).

You see the folks in Florida didn't update Vance from 1:00 A.M until 7:30 A.M, at which time the storm had already gone to ground near Teacapan about halfway between Maz and San Blas. That would be over 200 miles south of the position they predicted last evening. Thank God this wasn't a damaging storm, and our original prediction Vance would be much ado about nothing was correct.

To be fair I likewise predicted landfall well north of Maz. However I thought they missed badly on the claimed 45 MPH / 72 KPH wind, and wrote the velocity would be low enough to be insignificant, regardless of the storm track.  Which brings me to the real reason I've brought this up, which is not to cast aspersions or brag.

Rather to remind people there is NO weather person for Maz and all reports are computer models based on readings. Furthermore almost every popular weather reporting bureau, like The Weather Channel in the US and Accuweather in Canada, takes their readings from the airport. That's a classic case of garbage in / garbage out, since we all know weather at the airport is quite dissimilar to what you experience upon reaching your home or resort.

Plus you don't have anyone on the ground to correct obvious mistakes, a la the bizarre Weather Underground prediction of "freezing rain" for last night. Now there was a spooky and unusual small cloud that literally created a shroud over the top half of Bird Island around midnight. Maybe while the rest of us were "suffering" with rain and 70 F. / 21 C. degree temperatures, inside the mysterious shroud rain magically fell at 32 F. / 0 C.....Haha!

This looks to be the tropic's last chance since the wind from this event made water temperatures even less attractive for a storm to traverse. Moreover the unusual aspect of Vance pulling air way inland off the mountains will likely result in a fast transition to the kind of dry and mild winter weather Maz is used to from November through March. Enjoy !

Weather Update - Bye, bye Vance!

Vance is over!

The tail end of the storm we talked above hooked below Maz and will continue to come ashore in the that direction. Mazatlan got all the rain on the front side of Vance, and Puerto Vallarta should get all the backside. That beautiful three day weekend we talked about starting Friday? Make it four days starting tomorrow, and with the rain giving a boost to the green land and the wind giving a boost to the blue skies! It's going to be a stunner!!!

Rain, Rain Come Another (And Another - And Another) Day? - Mazatlan weather report

In the Northern US and Canada folks are hoping for a possible Indian Summer…those glorious days of Fall when dry warm air provides a last taste of summer.  In a weird way Maz is already experiencing a last fling with summer, as Hurricane Vance first made it feel like August again.    

I say weird because after Vance pushed up a very humid wave of warm air, the next step was a rainy chill almost like a those experienced in Vancouver or Portland.  More importantly for our NOB visitors, Vance latched onto a cousin and is carrying a big long tail we’ll be dealing with. 

The key question for this week and beyond is lluvia (rain) once….or twice?  Not large amounts in waves, as you usually expect from a Tropical Storm.  Rather a steady mild rain, combined with occasional periods of cool wind being drawn in off the mountains toward the storm center.  Let me explain. 

Shortly after Vance moved West out to sea, another area of disturbance developed off the coast near Acapulco.  This was reminiscent of the “Hurricane Bus Route” days of September.  However rather than two distinct storms, in this case Vance lingered in the area while the next weaker storm drew closer.

Given a different birth time our small cousin could have traveled a different route.  However the natural pull of outward air toward a storm center allowed Vance to latch onto the new area of disturbed air.  Now instead of the prototypical round storm, we’ve got a very long tail.  The result is we’ll have our current rain continuing through at least tomorrow, and possibly Thursday.  Then watch to see if the lagging tail brings more of the wet stuff early next week. 

In the interim expect some clear gorgeous weather for a three day weekend starting Friday.  If you were thinking about that trip to El Quelite or the zip line fun, this is a great time to do it.  Highs should be in the low 80’s to maybe 85 (29 – 30 C.) with mild winds just right for keeping it pleasant.  Low’s will be in the high 60’s (20 – 21 C.), with moderate humidity.  Just right for sleeping under the sheets with the A/C off. 

In a day or two the tail will be more discernable as to direction (it may miss us to the South) and how much moisture it carries.   Stay tuned for an update.  In the meantime after it moves through we look to move into our typical November weather pattern.  Warm days and pleasant nights, with noticeably dryer air. 

Have a great time if you’re in Maz, and if not see you soon!

Hurricane Vance weather update

Hurricane Vance is now expected to turn toward the mainland, but the Hurricane Center has not forecast it to back on it's original hook path right at Mazatlan. Instead the direction looks to be due North at Baja for today, then start to swing Northeast back toward the mainland.

That longer traveling time North and the sharply decreased Easterly angle would have Vance making landfull somewhere near the charming little town of Eldorado. Over a hundred miles and 170 kilometers north of Maz, which makes a world of difference in terms of wind speed for a moderate sized storm like this one.

Another important update is the Northeast rather than West track keeps Vance in warmer waters so the time he would be at hurricane strength has been increased by probably a day. The good news is the new forecast direction is so northerly the storm will almost certainly fade along the extra distance over water from a hurricane down to sub-tropical level.

That is a huge, huge difference as hurricanes start at 74 MPH / 119 KPH winds. Whereas the threshold for a Tropical Storm is only 38 MPH / 62 KPH. Vance is currently a Category II hurricane with sustained winds of 105 MPH / 169 KPH. A drop to sub Tropical level before landfall would decrease the wind velocity by a whopping 65%. Then moving landfall a hundred miles away from Maz decreases it even more.

This new direction certainly puts Maz into the path for more rain, but is very unlikely to be a wind event. The jury is still out on the path making more or less of the size and intensity of waves that could do further damage. Stay tuned.

Vance Wants to Trick Or Treat In Maz (Weather Report)

Despite the ocean water cooling considerably, it's still warm enough to provide fuel for a tormenta (storm). We've talked before about what I call The Cradle of Storms....better known as The Gulf of Tehuantepec in the far south of Mexico.

A couple days ago a new tormenta formed near there, albeit comfortably offshore. As of this morning the storm officially reached the tropical storm threshold of 35 Knots (40.3 MPH / 64.8 KPH) Of course tropical storms get names and since we're up to V this year, our new babe in The Cradle was dubbed "Vance."

At the beginning of the season our first several storms marched out of Mexican seas straight to the west, with just enough northerly drift to endanger the Hawaiian Islands. Then as things progressed tropical storms and hurricanes started going northwest a considerably distance prior to still angling west.

By September the northwest direction got very pronounced, and combined with crazy warm waters with patches at 90 F. (32.2 C.), started fueling a series of hurricanes that became almost as consistent as buses down the Malacon. One after another they'd gear up in the Cradle, then march around the corner of Cabo Corrientes (the extreme southern point of the bay that includes Puerto Vallarta) before spinning out toward or below Baja.

Now after more than a month of relatively calm seas and winds we have Vance wanting to flex his muscles, and here's where it gets interesting. Remember that giant clockwise loop Norbert made starting in The Cradle...arcing northwest along the Mexican coast...north over the top of Cabo...circling northeast to cause floods in the desert of Arizona...and finally east to die in Texas.

Expect Vance to make another clockwise run, albeit a much a smaller diameter swing. Small enough that the top arc could, and probably will, send it right over Mazatlan! OK, OK now that I've scared everyone, let me clarify the risk of an actual hurricane here is very slight to highly unlikely. While Vance may well reach (lower) hurricane status, that will be short lived and he should fall back into tropical storm level prior to ever making land.

Here are the reasons:

1. Water Temperatures - The ocean in Northern Mexico has been cooled dramatically by a series of windy days from the north. This reduces the "fuel" factor to generate higher wind speeds. In fact ocean temps have dropped by at least 10 degrees F. (sorry I don't know how to write that in C.), and while out today we were remarking how pleasant it was even in the middle of the day

2. A Short Duration Event - Norbert's damage to Cabo was enhanced by the day after day build up of power and wind / wave speed and size as it approached Baja. Whereas Vance just qualified as a tropical storm today (Thursday), but should reach peak strength barely three days later on Sunday

3. Turn East And Die - The following has little scientific basis, nevertheless is based on over 30 years of anecdotal information. I can't remember how many tropical storms and hurricanes I weathered in Mazatlan, but can say without fail every single one of them weakened...a lot, as they approached the mainland.

Like clockwork I'm predicting we'll see that again. This storm will grow and travel in a direction that throws people into a tizzy of worry. Only to end up as a windy rain storm with some moderately rough seas that passes over around Tuesday. Call it Pacific Pearl luck...or natures gift to the wonderful people of Mazatlan, but it's happened so consistently since the 1970's that it's become routine and expected.

Expect it again.