Hurricane Vance is now expected to turn toward the mainland, but the Hurricane Center has not forecast it to back on it's original hook path right at Mazatlan. Instead the direction looks to be due North at Baja for today, then start to swing Northeast back toward the mainland.
That longer traveling time North and the sharply decreased Easterly angle would have Vance making landfull somewhere near the charming little town of Eldorado. Over a hundred miles and 170 kilometers north of Maz, which makes a world of difference in terms of wind speed for a moderate sized storm like this one.
Another important update is the Northeast rather than West track keeps Vance in warmer waters so the time he would be at hurricane strength has been increased by probably a day. The good news is the new forecast direction is so northerly the storm will almost certainly fade along the extra distance over water from a hurricane down to sub-tropical level.
That is a huge, huge difference as hurricanes start at 74 MPH / 119 KPH winds. Whereas the threshold for a Tropical Storm is only 38 MPH / 62 KPH. Vance is currently a Category II hurricane with sustained winds of 105 MPH / 169 KPH. A drop to sub Tropical level before landfall would decrease the wind velocity by a whopping 65%. Then moving landfall a hundred miles away from Maz decreases it even more.
This new direction certainly puts Maz into the path for more rain, but is very unlikely to be a wind event. The jury is still out on the path making more or less of the size and intensity of waves that could do further damage. Stay tuned.
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