Finance officials are projecting a growth rate of 3.7% for 2015, a percentage point higher than that for this year, while the consensus of 35 financial analysts is for 3.85%. The official projection, down from an earlier one of 4.7%, was contained in the 2015 budget, submitted to Congress last week.
At CI Banco, the outlook is rosier still. Economic analyst James Salazar said his group is expecting growth to reach 4.2%, driven in part by strong foreign investment.
The announcement last week of Mexico City’s new airport along with the structural reforms have been well received by investors, evidence of which was seen last week with a record high close for the year of the Mexican stock exchange, said Salazar.
The new airport is expected to bring economic benefits not only in the aviation sector but for the economy as a whole for transportation improvements the new facility will bring.
Other positive signals are increases in manufacturing. The purchasing managers’ index rose 4.4% in August to 51.6, up from 49.4 in July. Economists point to public infrastructure spending and and recovery in the United States as reasons for the stronger showing.
The next six months will be good, said the head of the Center of Economic and Budget Research, a Mexico City think tank, with stronger growth coming next year.
Héctor Villarreal said increased manufacturing and steel for exports were major contributors to the improvement, while the chemical and agriculture sectors are set to do well.
However, he also expressed concern about the growing federal deficit, US $48 billion in 2013, which was up from $39 billion at the start of President Peña Nieto’s term. Public debt totals more than $300 billion.
“They are not taking care of the deficit – they believe it is a problem for the next government,” Villarreal said, noting that the growth is well-timed to garner support for Peña in the 2015 mid-term election, but with the negative consequences coming after his term ends in 2018. “They want to push the reforms as strong as possible. The deficit is not an issue anymore.”
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