Mexico, not China, is the economic powerhouse that the United States should be attuned to as it pursues economic security, Alan Bersin, assistant secretary of international affairs and chief diplomatic officer for the Department of Homeland Security, said Tuesday in remarks to the San Diego Club.
Mexico is a rising force and the gateway to other North and Central American countries that are critical to the continent's economic development over the next generations, he said.
"The story of the next 50 years -- the story that the United States is inevitably receding and China is rising -- is actually not the case," Bersin said. Despite its growth, China faces challenges due to "deep internal problems with trying to reconcile its economy with its political system."
North America, from Colombia to the Arctic, is where the greater potential lies, Bersin said. "That's the story. And if we get our act together ... as we have with Mexico, your futures economically will be secured, and the frontiers will be new, and the opportunities there will be exciting," he told the audience at La Jolla Country Day School.
"Mexico is not what we think it was. Mexico is not impoverished," he continued. Bersin cited its $1.17 trillion economy, the 13th largest in the world. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Mexico's economy is expected to surpass that of Germany in one generation. Currently 51 percent of the nation's citizens are part of the middle class, he added, whether based on birth rate, death rates, quality of health care, quality of education.
The changes are due in part to a drop in the birth rate, from more than 5.7 children per woman in the 1970s to just over the replacement rate of 2.1, today, he said.
Telling the audience that the United States was built by immigrants, he urged tolerance when it comes to undocumented immigrants.
"100 years ago my grandparents came from Western Russia. Everybody has a story. So we should always look at those who are here undocumented now and figure that our grandparents were once in that state or nearly in that state," Bersin said. "They certainly were new immigrants."
Previously, Bersin served as commissioner of Customs and Border Protection and an assistant secretary for the Department of Homeland Security focusing on border affairs. He became known as the "Border Czar." Before that, he was superintendent of the San Diego Unified School District and the U.S. attorney in San Diego.
An audience member asked how the U.S. is addressing lawlessness in Mexico, cross-border drug commerce and repercussions north of the border. Bersin said "that war" is being fought but not won. "I think it's fair to say that we're managing it. We're not solving it, but we're managing it more successfully than was the case in the past," he said. Prescription drug and methamphetamine trafficking continue to pose challenges, while cocaine use is down, he added.
A student asked about how the legalization of marijuana could affect the drug wars. Pot is legal in Colorado and Washington state. Bersin declined to answer on the record.
After the talk, Bersin headed into Tijuana to tour CETYS, a technical university.
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