Sep 18, 2014
No we're not talking about that sport you engage in while riding a horse. This Polo is a tropical storm, and will develop into a hurricane sometime today. First however, let's backtrack a little and follow up with Odile, the former Category III hurricane which has degraded into a heavy rain storm.
It hooked around sharply after entering the U.S., and is now moving due East. Odile dumped a lot of rain on the Tucson area of Arizona, and will continue to pour while going over Las Cruces, New Mexico and El Paso, Texas on a tour through the Lone Star State.
In the meantime our next storm watch is concentrated on Polo, which, because of the terrible damage in Cabo, is guaranteed to get more attention than it deserves. Of course we don't want to minimize the inconvenience to people in areas like Zihuatanejo or Manzanillo, where out of an abundance of caution flights may be delayed or cancelled.
However in the end there's almost no chance for Polo to become an infamous storm like Odile. In fact it's more likely to been less eventful than Norbert. Let's talk about the hows and whys. Currently Polo is just about 150 miles (240 kilometers) offshore Manzanillo, and heading West by Northwest. The important part of that heading is the West designation coming first, as that keeps it offshore.
Thanks to our Canadian friends, you can get a good look at Polo by clicking on the link, (and notice that while bands of clouds spiral out through the Mexican states of Colima (Manzanillo) and Michoacán, the main body with damaging winds is well out in the ocean):
Hurricane experts are predicting Polo will continue on its' current heading, then gently arc more Westerly and swing below the Baja Peninsula. That looks like a good call. Odile instead veered North into Cabo, but thank God we have a ridge of pressure that will make Polo want to go toward open sea instead. The question is how close will it be to Baja as it hopefully makes the turn?
This direction will keep it far away from Mazatlan, and consequently be an unlikely source of direct rain. In fact that particular track often sees us with rather sunny skies. However the storm will tend to pull air off the land, so that could bring extra moisture down off the mountains at night and increase chances of precipitation.
Polo will be dead center in the "window" to produce significant sized rollers at the beaches, already somewhat denuded of sand. Fortunately they'll be coming from farther away than Norbert, and hopefully less radical. Be especially cautious on your beach walks, as the slope to the water will be steeper than normal. In addition currents will be very strong, so maybe we could stick to the pool....OK ?....;^)
The Spanish word for storm is tormenta, which is rather appropriate as they can bring unwanted conditions including high humidity. Air temperatures don't look to be too high though, right at the mid 80's (29.5 C.). This is probably going to be more about rather warm nights, in the mid 70's (24 C.). (Which will sound wonderful if you're in Calgary or Montana and it snows again this week...LOL)
In addition I think we can count on the chances for rain to be high through the next week. On second thought let's make that rain guaranteed, but don't look for a tropical storm downpour. As always expect most rain to arrive late at night, and during the day there should be plenty of sunshine. Particularly if Polo makes that Westerly turn early.
If you're in Mazatlan have a great time ! If you're not....well, why not ??
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